The Kabul Tribune (KT)— An estimated 4.7 million people in Afghanistan are projected to face emergency levels of food insecurity in 2026, more than twice the number recorded the previous year, as hunger, drought, displacement and economic hardship deepen pressure on families, according to an analysis published Friday by the REACH Initiative.
The analysis projects that 17.4 million people will
experience acute food insecurity this year. It also estimates that 21.9 million
people, or about 45% of Afghanistan’s population, will need humanitarian
assistance in 2026, despite a 4% decline from 2025.
The report, titled “Integrated MHPSS Situation Analysis:
Afghanistan,” was prepared by Afghanistan’s Mental Health and Psychosocial
Support Technical Working Group. It draws on humanitarian assessments covering
food security and nutrition, protection, health, gender and children, including
information from the U.N. Development Program and UNICEF.
Of those facing acute food insecurity, 4.7 million are
expected to be in IPC Phase 4, classified as Emergency. The number is more than
double that of the previous year.
The analysis identifies hunger, acute malnutrition, reduced
dietary diversity and debt as sources of chronic stress that can contribute to
harmful coping mechanisms. Children under 5, adolescent girls, pregnant and
breastfeeding women, returnees and internally displaced families are among
those considered particularly vulnerable.
The report says socioeconomic distress is a major driver of
mental health and psychosocial needs, particularly when families lose income,
arrive in communities without food reserves, face high housing costs or lack
access to documentation, health care and education.
“The recurring pattern is cumulative stress,” the analysis
says, noting that successive shocks are weakening households’ ability to cope
faster than services can recover.
The combination of food insecurity, displacement, loss of
livelihoods, protection risks and repeated emergencies is expected to increase
psychological distress and weaken the ability of families and communities to
cope, the report says.
Women, children, older people, people with disabilities,
returnees and communities facing multiple humanitarian needs are particularly
at risk.
The report cautions that its conclusions about mental health
are technical interpretations based on documented humanitarian conditions,
rather than clinical data measuring the prevalence of mental health disorders.
Drought and mass returns add pressure
Drought is another major concern. Twelve provinces are
severely affected, with about 3.4 million people already impacted, according to
the analysis.
Afghanistan’s broader humanitarian crisis has also been
compounded by earthquakes, floods, disease outbreaks, displacement and
declining aid. Market volatility, border closures and supply-chain disruptions
have pushed up the cost of food, medicine, shelter and water and sanitation
supplies, while funding shortages have disrupted humanitarian programs.
Large-scale returns from neighboring countries have added
further pressure to communities and already strained services.
More than 2.61 million Afghans returned from Iran and
Pakistan in 2025 alone, according to the report. Returnees from Iran are
expected to settle mainly in western, northern, northeastern, central and
southeastern provinces, while those returning from Pakistan have been
concentrated in eastern, northeastern, southern, central and southeastern
areas.
Rural communities face gaps in basic services, limited
access to markets and infrastructure challenges. Urban areas are under pressure
from growing populations and overstretched services.
The analysis recommends prioritizing vulnerable returnees
and displaced people, particularly female-headed households, women without male
guardians, children without caregivers, people with disabilities, older people
with limited support and families with malnourished children.
Women and children face heightened risks
Women and girls face significant barriers to mental health
and other humanitarian assistance, the report says.
Restrictions on women, documentation requirements,
male-guardian rules, transportation costs and shortages of female humanitarian
workers can limit access to services and contribute to psychological distress.
The report recommends increasing the number of female mental
health and psychosocial support workers, providing safe spaces and
transportation for women and girls, establishing confidential pathways to
assistance and strengthening gender-sensitive feedback mechanisms.
Other protection concerns include violence, exploitation,
family separation, loss of documentation and a lack of safe spaces. Explosive
ordnance also remains a threat, with an average of about 50 people reportedly
killed or injured each month.
Children face additional pressure from disrupted education,
language barriers, unsafe environments and a lack of structured routines.
Returnee and displaced children, girls, children with disabilities and those
separated from caregivers face heightened risks.
The report calls for expanded psychosocial support for
children and adolescents, safe learning spaces, support for caregivers and
stronger referral systems for children who need specialized mental health care.
Mental health services remain limited
Afghanistan’s strained health system is struggling to meet
mental health needs amid disease outbreaks, exposure to trauma, overcrowded
facilities and disrupted referral services, according to the analysis.
Humanitarian organizations have provided psychosocial
support for children and caregivers, case management, family tracing and
reunification, referrals for specialized mental health services and safe spaces
for women and girls. Psychosocial support has also been incorporated into
emergency education programs.
But significant gaps remain, including limited specialized
mental health services, shortages of female staff, weak continuity of care
between border and transit points and areas of return, reduced child protection
capacity and fragmented coordination and data systems.
The report also points to short-term funding and inadequate
services for people with disabilities as major challenges.
Substance use is another under-addressed concern, the
analysis says, contributing to health problems and increasing financial and
social pressure on families.
Community-level assistance alone is not sufficient for
people with moderate to severe mental health conditions, including severe
depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, the report says. It calls for
stronger referral systems and greater access to specialized care.
Community health workers, volunteers, religious leaders,
youth groups, community elders, local organizations and women-led groups remain
important sources of outreach and support.
However, repeated shocks, displacement and restrictions on
movement are weakening those networks, particularly for female returnees and
female-headed households. Community workers are also increasingly being asked
to provide psychosocial support without adequate training, supervision or
referral systems, according to the analysis.
$1.71 billion sought for humanitarian response
Humanitarian partners plan to prioritize 17.5 million people
for assistance in Afghanistan in 2026, about 80% of the 21.9 million people
estimated to need aid.
The humanitarian response is seeking $1.71 billion for
life-saving and protection assistance, including food, shelter, health care,
nutrition, safe water, hygiene and multipurpose cash assistance.
The analysis recommends integrating mental health and
psychosocial support into health, protection, nutrition, education, shelter,
water and sanitation, cash and livelihood programs rather than treating mental
health as a stand-alone issue.
It also calls for expanded psychological first aid and community-based
support, specialized services for people with serious mental health conditions,
stronger referral pathways, improved mapping of available services and greater
support for frontline workers.
Linking mental health services with livelihoods and cash
assistance could also help ease financial pressures that contribute to
psychological distress, the report says.
Afghanistan’s overlapping crises have created a high-risk
environment for mental health and psychosocial well-being, the analysis
concludes, as repeated shocks erode families’ ability to cope while
humanitarian services face funding, staffing and capacity constraints.
